Value Bet Calculator
Enter the bookmaker odds and your own estimate of the chance a bet wins. The calculator shows whether the bet has value, your edge and the expected value of your stake.
Implied probability
47.6%
Fair odds
1.92
Edge (EV per €1)
+9.2%
Expected value
+€0.92
Kelly suggests staking 8.4% of your bankroll. Many bettors use a quarter of that (2.1%) to reduce swings. Your probability is an estimate — if it's wrong, so is the value.
What is a value bet?
A value bet is one where the odds pay more than the true chance of the outcome deserves. If you think a team wins 52% of the time and the bookmaker offers 2.10 (an implied 47.6%), you have an edge of about 9%.
How is expected value calculated?
Expected value = (your probability × decimal odds) − 1, multiplied by your stake. A positive number means the bet is profitable in the long run if your probability estimate is right.
What is the Kelly stake?
The Kelly criterion suggests what share of your bankroll to stake based on your edge. Because probability estimates are never perfect, many bettors stake a quarter of the Kelly amount or less.
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